Creatives come in all sorts of stripes. There are composers, authors, painters, sculptors, fashion designers, architects, inventors, pundits, floral arrangers, interior decorators, television producers, to name a few. In fact, in the article, "What will you be doing in the Information Age?" the first two categories I discuss are Designer and Content Creator, both 'Creatives'.
Whether producing video content or costume jewelry, all Creatives have one thing in common; they must find sufficient fans to pay the bills. The sad fact is that, today, few of them are succeeding. Most are putting forth enormous effort frequently with little or no tangible financial results. In some cases, such as the ad supported blog, the business model, itself, is broken beyond repair.
In many cases, it actually boils down to the simple problem of traffic acquisition. In other words, assuming that you have demonstrated that there is a market for your wares, it then becomes a matter of finding that market for less cost than the resulting revenue generated.
To this end, Technium discussed the idea of 1,000 True Fans. It suggests that the future may be characterized by countless creators who have found 1,000 enthusiasts who will provide them with $100 per year each in revenue. As the author, Kevin Kelly, states, $100 X 1,000 = $100,000 less some expenses is a living for most people.
While true and on the surface 1,000 doesn't sound that difficult, in practice, it is proving just short of impossible. There are exceptions, of course, and Technium discusses Amanda Hocking, a dramatic example. She actually is earning six figures per month. Yes, per month. However, she is notable precisely because she is one of just a handful of examples of a success. Also, she has not found 1,000 True Fans. She has found hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, of them.
John Scalzi wrote a wonderful article entitled, "The Problem with 1,000 True Fans" that goes a long way in explaining why we have so few success stories. Key among these is a consideration of price elasticity. In other words, if my goal is to obtain $100,000 per year, I can, as Technium suggests, find 1,000 True Fans who support me with $100 per year. Or I could find 10,000 at $10. Or, on the other hand, 100 at $1,000. The Creative is faced with a dilemma. The market research required to determine where on the elasticity curve the optimum profit may be found is too expensive. Consequently, the Creative must guess and they usually guess wrong. Furthermore, for most Creatives, even if they guess correctly, it still won't be easy.
I emphasize again that this is important because Creatives will likely constitute the largest career category in the Information Age. Many of my readers who, presently, don't think they are likely to be one of them are going to turn out to be wrong. The imagination you are demonstrating by reading The Future 101 suggests that over time and over the Transformation, you will discover that it is your home. It is for me, despite spending nearly my whole career in Finance. The Transformation will be forcing many career changes.
However, this needs to be viable and, currently, save for the few notable exceptions, it is not. I have been personally going through this. Some of my readers have been as well. We all have discovered that there are two primary problems.
Suppose a Creative has a business model that requires finding 10,000@$10. Again, assume that the market is English speakers on the Internet, which is about 600 million people. That means that if the Creative searches randomly, one would find a True Fan in every 60,000 people contacted. If you need to talk to 60,000 people to get $10, there just is no way to do it cost effectively. You are doomed before you start.
Of course, we don't really search randomly. We make an effort to find places that distill the general population down to a much greater concentration of True Fan candidates. Even if we do find a place with a hundred times greater concentration, we still need to sort through 600 people to find one True Fan. While finding such a place can be exhilarating, in the final analysis, few of our True Fans are actually hanging out in these kinds of locations. Consequently, we may add a few hundred by this method, but, after that, we have no additional marketing options.
We are, I know I have been, attracted to the notion of WOM. In theory, for those familiar with the concept of Six Degrees of Separation, you can reach every one of your True Fans, simply by asking for some help from those sympathetic readers.
The second problem is that, when it comes to True Fans, rarely is it love at first sight. Most often, one becomes a True Fan through multiple exposures over time. This actually suggests that the middle pricing model, Technium's 1,000@$100 may be the most difficult price point to make work. What I mean by that, is that it is probably far easier to woo a few, say 100@$1,000, if the product output is amenable or to find a large number of candidates, say 10,000@$10, who aren't in love yet, but are willing to part with a little money to continue the process.
The upshot of these two factors is that, in the absence of a more effective aggregators, success will remain elusive. So, the first order of business is to stop quixotically charging off as a lone wolf, attempting to find your 1,000 or 10,000 or 100 True Fans and start working together with other Creatives who are searching for a similar audience or market. This is one of the ideas behind the Enterprise Network. In many cases, traffic is its most important asset.
In many cases, it actually boils down to the simple problem of traffic acquisition. In other words, assuming that you have demonstrated that there is a market for your wares, it then becomes a matter of finding that market for less cost than the resulting revenue generated.
To this end, Technium discussed the idea of 1,000 True Fans. It suggests that the future may be characterized by countless creators who have found 1,000 enthusiasts who will provide them with $100 per year each in revenue. As the author, Kevin Kelly, states, $100 X 1,000 = $100,000 less some expenses is a living for most people.
While true and on the surface 1,000 doesn't sound that difficult, in practice, it is proving just short of impossible. There are exceptions, of course, and Technium discusses Amanda Hocking, a dramatic example. She actually is earning six figures per month. Yes, per month. However, she is notable precisely because she is one of just a handful of examples of a success. Also, she has not found 1,000 True Fans. She has found hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, of them.
John Scalzi wrote a wonderful article entitled, "The Problem with 1,000 True Fans" that goes a long way in explaining why we have so few success stories. Key among these is a consideration of price elasticity. In other words, if my goal is to obtain $100,000 per year, I can, as Technium suggests, find 1,000 True Fans who support me with $100 per year. Or I could find 10,000 at $10. Or, on the other hand, 100 at $1,000. The Creative is faced with a dilemma. The market research required to determine where on the elasticity curve the optimum profit may be found is too expensive. Consequently, the Creative must guess and they usually guess wrong. Furthermore, for most Creatives, even if they guess correctly, it still won't be easy.
I emphasize again that this is important because Creatives will likely constitute the largest career category in the Information Age. Many of my readers who, presently, don't think they are likely to be one of them are going to turn out to be wrong. The imagination you are demonstrating by reading The Future 101 suggests that over time and over the Transformation, you will discover that it is your home. It is for me, despite spending nearly my whole career in Finance. The Transformation will be forcing many career changes.
However, this needs to be viable and, currently, save for the few notable exceptions, it is not. I have been personally going through this. Some of my readers have been as well. We all have discovered that there are two primary problems.
Suppose a Creative has a business model that requires finding 10,000@$10. Again, assume that the market is English speakers on the Internet, which is about 600 million people. That means that if the Creative searches randomly, one would find a True Fan in every 60,000 people contacted. If you need to talk to 60,000 people to get $10, there just is no way to do it cost effectively. You are doomed before you start.
Of course, we don't really search randomly. We make an effort to find places that distill the general population down to a much greater concentration of True Fan candidates. Even if we do find a place with a hundred times greater concentration, we still need to sort through 600 people to find one True Fan. While finding such a place can be exhilarating, in the final analysis, few of our True Fans are actually hanging out in these kinds of locations. Consequently, we may add a few hundred by this method, but, after that, we have no additional marketing options.
We are, I know I have been, attracted to the notion of WOM. In theory, for those familiar with the concept of Six Degrees of Separation, you can reach every one of your True Fans, simply by asking for some help from those sympathetic readers.
The second problem is that, when it comes to True Fans, rarely is it love at first sight. Most often, one becomes a True Fan through multiple exposures over time. This actually suggests that the middle pricing model, Technium's 1,000@$100 may be the most difficult price point to make work. What I mean by that, is that it is probably far easier to woo a few, say 100@$1,000, if the product output is amenable or to find a large number of candidates, say 10,000@$10, who aren't in love yet, but are willing to part with a little money to continue the process.
The upshot of these two factors is that, in the absence of a more effective aggregators, success will remain elusive. So, the first order of business is to stop quixotically charging off as a lone wolf, attempting to find your 1,000 or 10,000 or 100 True Fans and start working together with other Creatives who are searching for a similar audience or market. This is one of the ideas behind the Enterprise Network. In many cases, traffic is its most important asset.
No comments:
Post a Comment