Attitude, Exercise and Living to 90+

Mike Wallace of 60 Minutes just died at age of 93.  It is very quickly becoming the case that the biblical 'three score and ten' is becoming 'four score and ten.'  Th two longest living presidents were Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan.  George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter, both 88, are threatening to make it the case that the last four Presidents to die were also the four oldest presidents, The question is, 'Why is this happening?'  It is true that medical technology is improving rapidly.  However, is that all the explanation?  Probably not.  Some of it is almost surely about changing attitudes and the changing behaviors that they elicit.

We know that two of the important culprits of aging are shortening telomeres and deteriorating mitochondria.    We are discovering that exercise rejuvenates mitochondria.  This is a bit of a catch 22, then, because mitochondria are also the producers of our body's energy.  Th worse your mitochondria the less you feel like exercising.  Yet if you do exercise your energy level will improve.  Recently, we are beginning to discover that the same may be true about telomeres.  In fact, some researchers are going so far as to say that this is the mechanism by which exercise can actually make us live longer.

This leads to the speculation that we have a bifurcated older population which was definitely implied by the last link above.  Those who adhere to the 1950's notion that as we age our bodies become more breakable and, therefore, we need to stop engaging in the more strenuous activities are espousing an antiquated attitude.  We now know that this behavior, rather than preserving what is left of the mileage on our body, leads to deteriorating mitochondria, loss of energy and the risk of type 2 diabetes.  We also know that it leads to shorter telomeres, loss of muscle mass and higher risks of cancer.

However, there is a growing group of seniors who embrace the philosophy of much more active golden years.  They have made the commitment to 'run through the tape.'  In other words, they have a different attitude about how older people should behave and the behavior seems to create the physical ability to engage in those behaviors.  Until recently, it wasn't clear that this was a feasible course of action.  There has always been a question about the direction of the causal arrow with exercise and life expectancy.  Do healthy people feel better and therefore are they more inclined to be more active and also live longer?  Or are people who are active more inclined to be healthy and live longer? 

We now see the mechanisms by which exercise leads to longer life and we can feel more confident in stating that the spread between the classifications of sedentary and very active is about 3.7 years.  That is minor compared to the ten year difference between the smoker and the non-smoker.  However, it is more than any other behavior modification.  As these two behaviors begin to take hold and work their way into the older generations, the current increase in life expectancies in the older decades will continue to increase significantly.  21% smoke, providing a 2.1 year potential life span gain.  However the current distribution of activity is very poor, which provides as much as another 2.5 year lifespan gain.  This, alone will give the 60 year old of today an increase from a life expectancy of about 83 to almost 88.  90 year lifespans are already in reach.

As I was just saying to a colleague, the fact that we are not going to die twenty years from now but rather forty years from now has little relevance for twenty years.  Save for the point at which we really believe it.  Then it will become immediately relevant because we will behave differently.  We will think of our careers, our marriages, our relationships, and our avocations differently and we will immediately behave differently with regard to them. 

We will be discussing these technologies as well as others in the premium service.  Furthermore, we will be exploring how the changing attitudes that they will instill will change the economics, politics, lifestyles and culture through the transformation.

Punditry in the Information Age

ABSTRACT:
The first Knowledge Class career I am going to investigate in detail in The Future 101 premium service will be that of pundit.  It includes columnists, bloggers, speakers, consultants, authors, etc.  Currently, this is generally being understood to be people who write and speak with authority on civic matters.  The definition, however, will be much more extensive in the Information Age. 

For example, quibis astronomicae is a facezine that is providing an outlet to about a half dozen astronomy and space pundits.  Such pundits will have increasing opportunities for compensated exposure much of which may reside in several boutique homepages.  In the Information Age, there will be orchid growing pundits, antique Mercedes pundits, private equity market pundits, Thai cuisine pundits, well, the list almost doesn't end.  Essentially anything that has blogs now will have pundits then.


To better understand the difference a blogger and a pundit, visit Dennis Prager's site.  You will notice that he essentially has a blog under his link 'articles.'  However, he also has audiocasts.  He has a premium content subdirectory entitled Pagertopia, costing $54.95 per year.  He sells Prager items in his store.  Through groups he facilitates offline Prager fans.  He has a tab, University, a series of 5 minute video lectures.  And you can book him for a speaking engagement.  That is how Dennis Prager has transcended a talk show radio personality and become a multi-service pundit.  Of course, each pundit will create a web presence and their own unique combination of offerings.

By organizing the Polymathica market and making it readily and cost effectively available to aspiring pundits, the mass migration from marginal blogger, consultant, etc. to affluent pundit will begin.  There will, of course, be behemoths in the market.  However, the typical pundit, residing in the very, very long tail, will likely belong to a network or roundtable of a half a dozen pundits (as with quibis astronomicae) sporting 100,000 subscribers.

With a annual subscription of $54.95 for all six pundits, perceived value will be high.  At this price point and audience, each pundit will realize a $500K 2012USD income.  That is low by Knowledge Class standards, but, like Dennis Prager, they will have the opportunity to augment their income with speaking or consulting engagements, books, endorsed products, etc.  Also, as the inexorable march into the post Income Explosion world of Finely Crafted Lives, subscription rolls and rates will increase.

Throughout the 2010's, the industry will grow to about $35 billion 2012USD, of which about $3.5 billion will be in Polymathica.  However, as The Cultures of Affluence and their dedication to a Finely Crafted Life emerges, it will quickly grow by tenfold or more.   At the outset, Polymathica.com will be able to support about 1,500 pundits.  At maturity, that number will likely have grown to over 10,000.

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The Polymathic Institute, through Polymathica.com, will be promoting a wide variety of pundits and providing them with the tools they will need to reach six figure incomes. The first step is to become a member

The Polymathic Institute.