This and That

IBM's Watson is tweeting at @IBMWatson. I wonder if, when he rolls out as a Physician's assistant whether he will tweet on work time? One could take this as a step toward a passing grade on the Turing Test or as a clever marketing ploy. I always suspend judgment when it is an option - as it is here.

I don't know how I should feel about this. On one hand it is uncharacteristically efficient for the Federal government. On the other hand it really brings home just how many places the Feds have their fingers. Either way, I will put it on my regular reading list. I found this while looking at fusion yesterday. There was an announcement that the Feds were extending the research grant on the Polywell for another two years.

Is there a point at which we should just give up on fusion as a promising energy technology? Yesterday I published my energy futures paper for my premium subscribers. They should understand from their reading of it that fusion is a technology that will solve a problem that doesn't exist. There are, indeed, many practical advantages to subscription.

The biggest news in some time is that a group of billionaires are planning to mine asteroids for the precious metals. I actually did a financial analysis around 1980 on this idea and was amazed that 'on paper' it was a big winner.

However, the problem is that the economically exploitable precious metals resource is so huge that the price of them would likely plummet to a unknowably low level. Whether the project would remain profitable in the face of a glut would be determined only by determining the price elasticity of the metals. However, even then, the supply would take us so far out of the data range that the result would likely not be trustworthy.

As I discuss in the Solar Diaspora unit of The Future 101, space will likely be humanized starting with the lowest Delta V carbonaceous chondrites and moving from there. My conclusion was and still is that this will take place after three critical events take place. First, we need a practical, reasonably priced technology to LEO. Second, we need a staging point in a stable LEO. Third, we will need an efficient deep space propulsion system.

The second is predicated upon the first and the third cannot be adequately tested before the first two. It all, then, boils down to LEO lift costs. Recently, yet another company has announced the intent to dramatically reduce lift costs. While we can be optimistic, the truth is that this claim has been made repeatedly and, so far, none have been able to deliver.

In 1977 I undertook the writing of a science fiction novel entitled 'The Meek Shall Inherit'. In it I had the first major space colony being built in 2032, after about ten years of exploratory missions. I stand by that prediction. Right now my money is on scram jet technology despite some recent setbacks.

The important point actually is that the whole Industrial Age train wreck will take place prior to the humanization of space. We will be seven years or so into the Golden Age. In other words, the humanization of space, while replete with romance is not what you should be paying attention to yet. There will be plenty of time for that and there are just too many important things to deal with first.

That, of course, is the point of The Future 101 subscription or membership. The time between now and 2040 may be the period of fastest change, past or future. It is a time of make or break. To put it bluntly, we need to get through that before we allow ourselves to become too ensnared in 2040 and after events.

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