Even if enlightened leadership attempted to implement Information Age solutions to the four horsemen of our particular apocalypse, the train wreck, their efforts would be successfully demagogued to a poorly educated and generally inattentive electorate. The enlightened leadership would be promptly voted out of office. Of course, this hypothetical situation has no relevance to the current, actual one. There is no potential enlightened political leadership anywhere in sight. I have tried to inform the political establishment about The Future 101, but to date, there has been no response. I expect none in the future.
In the U.S., in 2008, the Tea Party placed into Congress a significant number of Representatives and a few Senators who stand on principle and are not prepared to compromise with opponents that they believe to be entirely incorrect in their policies. While the nation has not moved particularly closer to the Tea Party - there is no Tea Party consensus anywhere in sight - the Republican nominating process and the critical swing districts, especially in the Senate, are still vulnerable. The Right may become even more intransigent.
Now, the Occupy Wall Street group is mobilizing the other side. It is quite possible that they will place into the next Congress, members who are unwilling to compromise with the Tea Party Caucus. This may not be an organized effort as it was with the Tea Party. They are intending to hold a National Assembly in Philadelphia on July 4, 2012. However, even if they are not successful in achieving the same level of organization, it is very likely that a significant number of very Liberal politicians will use the rhetoric of OWS to gain support. Given the enthusiasm sweeping the nation, it will probably work.
Information Age problems will not yield to Industrial Age solutions. On both sides of the political divide, that is what is being proposed. Between the increasing political gridlock and the inability to disengage from the battle long enough to see the larger, Information Age picture, our short term prognosis is poor. As I discuss extensively in The Future 101 premium site, any attempts to increase economic growth, whether based upon the Conservative's preference for supply side stimulation or the Liberals preference for demand side stimulation or any combination thereof will almost surely increase the unemployment rate.
To simplify our considerations here, remember AT&T's 'forklifts that drive themselves'. If the Conservatives provide incentives to business, as often as not, rather than investing in job creation, the businesses will buy the self-driving forklifts and, thereby, increase unemployment. If the Liberals provide more purchasing power, demand will increase, new facilities will need to be built and driverless forklifts, again, will increase unemployment. Clearly, Information Age solutions are required.
Certainly, rising unemployment and increasing income disparities between the emerging Information Age Knowledge Class and the prevailing incomes of the Industrial Age 'jobs' market are becoming cornerstones of the political divides. It is not perceived as an Industrial Age vs. Information Age problem, however, In fact, the recent rise of a clarion call for the 99% to rise up against the 1% is actually framing the problem in almost feudal terms. If Information Age problems won't yield to Industrial Age solutions, they most certainly won't yield to Agricultural Age ones.
The growth in income within the 1% has been primarily in 'business income' not salaries or capital gains. In other words, the 1% is getting its increasing income from the very same productivity gains that are causing the reduction in employment opportunities and remuneration for the 'workers'. This is not a cabal or a conspiracy of a passive investment class. In fact, if you subscribe to The Future 101 premium site, you will come to understand that the passive investor class is an endangered species. This is, in reality, evidence of the emerging Knowledge Class.
The arbitrary segregation of 1% from the 99% rather than the 2% from the 98%, or the 3% from the 97% is obfuscating the actual process that is taking place. Essentially, a growing Knowledge Class, with its characteristic seven figure incomes, is pushing out the old 1%. It is not yet dominating the upper 1%, but it will soon. It will then grow to 2%, then 3%, then 4%. This growth in the Knowledge Class when viewed as such rather than in a 'class warfare' 99% vs. 1% way, is really our only opportunity to avert, in any degree, the first item of the train wreck, the very high unemployment. In the end, the Knowledge Class will comprise about 20% of the population. By 2040, 80% of households will have real income that would put them in the top 1% today. The closer we can get to those numbers prior to the train wreck, the less severe it will be.
The mechanism of 'Saving the world by saving ourselves' is actually a bit more complex than that. When a person leaves an Industrial Age 'job' to become a member of the Knowledge Class, not only has (s)he averted the train wreck personally, they also are decreasing, by one, the number of workers competing for the disappearing Industrial Age jobs and, thereby, ameliorating the problems for those still in the Industrial Age. In other words, they are improving the supply and demand forces that are causing real wages to stagnate or fall.
Many of the Enterprise Networks, including the one I intend to start, Polymathica Enterprises, are structured around the emergence of a Culture of Affluence. These issues of culture are just as significant as the Economic ones of the Knowledge Class and technological unemployment. As we saw, political solutions to our Economic problems are futile. They are also useless in addressing our differences in values. In fact, in the 'Death of the Nation State, I 'argue that
- Politics is the art of compromise
- It is wrong to compromise one's principles
- We no longer share common principles
- Therefore politics is wrong
Another person argued that 'reality trumps principles.' Indeed it does. We do, at times, compromise our principles because it is forced upon us by reality. However, that will not save us from the long string of examples of principled positions that are not forced by reality, such as the death penalty, abortion rights, tax policies, marriage laws, teaching evolution and intelligent design, etc.
There have been a few people who have tried to argue that we do share common principles, citing commitments to liberal democracy, etc. I will grant that there is some merit in that argument. The Cultures of Affluence that spring from the Western heritage will share some underlying principles that may not be shared with the Eastern, Indic or Islamic heritages. While we do share some common principles, to an increasing degree, we do not share enough of them.
I make the prediction that a first principle of the global Information Age civilization is that no person should be required to live under a body of laws, programs and policies that they consider to be fundamentally unjust. This seems an impossible goal for many, perhaps most, people. We have become inured to what we consider unjust laws. However, the emergence of The Cultures of Affluence and the cultural cocoons that will be created by culturally defined communities, both real and virtual, will undermine this willingness to accept what we consider to be systemic miscarriages of justice.
While this requires a substantial rewrite of the institutions of civilization, I believe the benefit is worth the effort. We are, perhaps, seeing the beginning of the process with the potential agreement between Future Cities Development, Inc. and the government of Honduras. Whether this is ultimately successful, the basic notion will prevail. It all begins with the construction of Enterprise Networks.
By creating these culturally defined Enterprise Networks and thereby creating a more positive vision of the future, we are relieving at least some of the pressure of the impending 'divorce' of America. People will slowly move from the fights, arguments and angry rhetoric of groups with essentially irreconcilable differences to discussions about the ways and means of living together but separately. While no system will ever be perfect, we will craft an acceptable one.
We are also building, through Enterprise Networks, the replacement to the Industrial Age corporation in advance of its actual demise. By doing so, we are creating an enabling environment for entrance into the Knowledge Class. We are also allowing our economy to make a soft landing in the post corporate world. It is worth pointing out again, that the 1% is gaining its income from Business Income, not from dividends or capital gains. This is evidence that the post corporate world is already emerging.
I would be the first to agree that creating an Internet business providing content, products and services to a highly nichified market is difficult. However, it will get easier as the traffic aggregators become more Information Age defined. When it is successful, a Knowledge Class member has been created. The live anywhere option is achieved and income will typically jump to Knowledge Class levels. As I discuss elsewhere here and explore deeply in the premium service, the '1,000 True Fans' logic is the logic of the Information Age. However, the numbers will be more like 100,000 virtual CD's sold at $15 each with the artist retaining 70% to 85% of the proceeds. Or, as in my case, 50,000 subscribers at $54.95 per year. These are not going to be exceptions. By the train wreck, these success stories could comprise 5% or more of the workforce.
Sadly, the last of the four components of the train wreck, the death of the Industrial Age cities has no good solution. By 2040 the median home price will be nearing 2.5 million 2012USD and 7,000 ft.². With the home price for a family at the poverty level being characteristically around 600K to 700K 2012USD, there will simply not be any market for 75% of the homes today. Not only are they too small, their density is too great and they are not of sufficiently high quality. They will be what the real estate industry now calls 'a tear down.' It is worth the value of the lot less the cost to remove the house.
In higher end areas this process is already well advanced. In my vicinity, 3,000 ft.² houses are being torn down and replaced by 8,000 ft.² houses. The smaller houses are almost never bought for occupancy. This is the beginning of a trend that will sweep the developed world over the next thirty years. Personally, your only defense is to join the Knowledge Class and get out before it happens to you. Macro-economically, this is both good and bad. Clearly an enormous amount of Net Worth will disappear. However, the rebuilding of the developed world and the creation of affluent communities in currently underdeveloped regions will create, primarily from 2020 onward, an unprecedented global Real Estate boom.
In all of these actions, we will be reducing the severity of the Transformation. For many of us, by the time the train hits the wall, we will be safely ensconced in a Culture of Affluence in a Knowledge Class career and, perhaps, even in a Boutique Village in an Information Age scaled house. For us, personally, the train wreck will be averted. It is unlikely that we can avert it for everyone. Most people will cling to the familiar to the very end. The Information Age solutions will be politically unfeasible to implement on a large scale. However, fewer victims of the train wreck, coupled with the much higher GDP of the Information Age, will make it, comparatively, much more bearable.
I do not know if, in my effort to get your subscription to The Future 101 and provide you with the practical tools of a community of action, I should emphasize that you are saving yourself or that you are saving the world. I do not see it as an either/or. I consider it to be most auspicious that we can do both - that, for once, self-interest and altruism are more or less congruent. Your decision is an ethical win-win.
Either way, if you are to be involved, your first step will be to subscribe to The Future 101 premium site. From there, perhaps you will choose to move on to Enterprise Networks and/or the True Fans strategy. In this way you are taking concrete and positive steps toward 'Saving the world by saving yourself.' You will be undertaking what is both a personally and societally laudable course of action. Once again, I look forward to seeing you inside.
With Warm Regards,
Michael Ferguson
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