Creatives come in all sorts of stripes. There are composers, authors, painters, sculptors, fashion designers, architects, inventors, pundits, floral arrangers, interior decorators, television producers, to name a few. In fact, in the article, "What will you be doing in the Information Age?" the first two categories I discuss are Designer and Content Creator, both 'Creatives'. They may comprise as much as 15% of the workforce.
Whether producing video content or costume jewelry, all Creatives, from aspiring to successful, have one thing in common; they must find sufficient fans to pay the bills. The sad fact is that, today, few of them are succeeding. Most are putting forth enormous effort, frequently with little or no tangible financial results. In some cases, such as the ad supported blog, the business model, itself, is broken beyond repair. As we discuss in The Future 101, it will most likely evolve into subscription, cooperative magazines.
In most cases, it actually boils down to the simple problem of traffic acquisition. In other words, assuming that you have demonstrated that there is a market for your wares, it then becomes a matter of finding that market for less cost than the resulting revenue generated. I know many blogs, for example, who having generated awareness in 10,000 people have followings of 100. Considering that it is just 1/6,000 of the English spearkers on the Internet, that means with full awareness, they may have over 500,000 readers. With proper monetization, that would create a fine, full time income. However, it is also a dream. There is no way for a single blog to gain universal awareness for less than the expected advertising revenue.
To this end, Technium discussed the idea of 1,000 True Fans. It suggests that the future may be characterized by countless creators who have found 1,000 enthusiasts who will provide them with $100 per year each in revenue. As its author, Kevin Kelly, argues, $100 X 1,000 = $100,000 less some expenses is a living for most people. It certainly is far more attractive that attempting to live on a blogger's income.
While true and on the surface 1,000 doesn't sound that difficult, in practice, it is proving just short of impossible. There are exceptions, of course, and Technium discusses Amanda Hocking, a dramatic example. She actually is earning six figures per month. Yes, per month. However, she is notable precisely because she is one of just a handful of examples of a success. Also, she has not found 1,000 True Fans. She has found hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, of them. And, at $3 to $5 per e-book, they are more mildly interested rather than True Fans.
John Scalzi wrote a wonderful article entitled, "The Problem with 1,000 True Fans" that goes a long way in explaining why we have so few success stories. Key among these is a consideration of price elasticity. In other words, if my goal is to obtain $100,000 per year, I can, as Technium suggests, find 1,000 True Fans who support me with $100 per year. Or I could find 10,000 at $10. Or, on the other hand, 100 at $1,000. The Creative is faced with a dilemma. The market research required to determine where on the elasticity curve the optimum profit may be found is too expensive. Consequently, the Creative must guess and they usually guess wrong. Furthermore, for most Creatives, even if they guess correctly, it still won't be easy.
I emphasize again that this is important because Creatives will likely constitute the largest career category in the Information Age. Many of my readers who, presently, don't think they are likely to be one of them are going to turn out to be wrong. The imagination you are demonstrating by reading The Future 101 suggests that over time and over the Transformation, you will discover that it is your new career. It is for me, despite spending nearly my whole career in Finance. The Transformation will be forcing many career changes. So, stay open. Sometimes reality forces you in a direction that you should have gone anyway.
However, in order for this to be an option, it needs to be viable and, currently, save for the few notable exceptions, it is not. I have been personally going through this. Some of my readers have been as well. We all have discovered that there are two primary problems.
Suppose a Creative has a business model that requires finding 10,000@$10. Again, assume that the market is English speakers on the Internet, which is about 600 million people. That means that if the Creative searches randomly, one would find a True Fan in every 60,000 people contacted. If you need to talk to 60,000 people to get $10, there just is no way to do it cost effectively. You are doomed before you start.
The second problem is that, when it comes to True Fans, rarely is it love at first sight. Most often one becomes a True Fan through multiple exposures over time. This actually suggests that the middle pricing model, Technium's 1,000@$100, may be the most difficult price point to make work. It is not enough to warrant the effort of creating a True Fan and it is too much for the casually interested. It is probably far easier to woo a few, say 100@$1,000, if the work product is amenable or to find a large number of candidates, say 10,000@$10, who aren't in love yet, but are willing to part with a little money to continue the process.
The most effective approach may be a low front end commitment, followed by a larger commitment from those who do become True Fans. This is my approach with a $54.95 annual subscription, but for those who understand the Transformation and wish to pursue it aggressively, I will be providing several higher level opportunities.
The upshot of these two factors is that, in the absence of more effective aggregators, success will remain elusive. If however, traffic can be found in large amounts and at a low price, what is currently a dream can become a viable career option.
We are, I know I have been, attracted to the notion of word of mouth. In theory, for those familiar with the concept of Six Degrees of Separation, you can reach every one of your True Fans, simply by asking for some help from those sympathetic readers. In practice, when you are searching for a handful of people who will respond to you at the True Fan level, it doesn't work well.
Consider the total Internet population as comprised of three groups. The first group, very small, and likely widely dispersed, are your True Fans. They may be one out of a thousand among the general population and one out of a hundred where you are searching. Perhaps one in twenty within that search universe are sympathetic, but not True Fans. All other, essentially 95% of the search universe is of no benefit to you.
Your call for word of mouth, then, may be heeded by 5% of your contacts. However, it is usually heeded by 'sharing' on facebook or retweeting, etc. These methods rarely meet the requirement for virality. In other words, if 100 shares leads to less than 100 more shares, the word of mouth is decreasing and will fade out. If, however, 100 shares leads to more than 100 more shares, the word of mouth will grow. That is much more rare than one might think. In fact, most people discover that word of mouth provides marginal benefit and even this requires constant pump priming.
In an Enterprise network, let's assume in this case, for Internet magazines/blogs, the trick will be to aggregate several sites with very similar demographic appeal and then attack that niche aggressively. If you approach 100 potential readers, you may get one True Fan. If we approach 100 potential readers, we may get five True Fans between us. The process is five times more efficient.
However, few people are just blog readers. They often have many similar consumption patterns. Perhaps they have a high density of interest in custom designed and hand made jewelry. Maybe they enjoy educational vacations. So, we can also aggregate with a number of such products and services and because each brings people into the Enterprise Network we are again increasing our personal exposure while doing the same for others.
This, then, is the logic behind one type of Enterprise Network. My version of this is Polymathica.com. In our case, our market are people of refinement and erudition. One might imagine a Thomas Jefferson or a John Stuart Mill, although, obviously, we will not all be of that degree of erudition. Polymathica.com then becomes a market saturation site. In other words, our goal is to make sure that if our market is interested, we have it. If your blog, product or service primarily serves this market, then your market will be here and you can talk to them and you can acquire your 1,000 True Fans in a cost efficient way.
Recently, I received a link to The Age of the Platform. Germane to this discussion are the matters of Amazon, Facebook and Google. Together, these platforms provide Products, Social Media and Search Services to, virtually, the whole world. They are differentiated by service. Polymathica.com and other demographic Enterprise Networks are defined by a market niche and then it will provide all platforms to that market, customized to fit the attitudes, lifestyles, habit and preferences for just them.
This is a very powerful idea that may come to dominate up to 30% of the total Internet marketplace. Those consumers who identify readily with the popular culture will most likely remain with the traditional services. However, over time, Gaians, Goths, Wiccans, Polyamorists, Singularitarians, Polymathicans, New Age and a host of others will find that a dedicated portal to their content, products, services, social media, etc. will be much more efficient and self-affirming.
As a Creative, with a properly constructed Platform for your market niche, you will likely discover that, rather than struggling to get your 1,000 True Fans, you will sail right past that, right into Information Age income levels. Actually, the notion of content appealing to only one in 60,000 is rather peculiar. Almost always, even for highly defined niches, the appeal will likely be at least one in a thousand or it will be nothing.
For example, I feel confident from the quality of the reception for The Future 101, that I will ultimately have, perhaps, 20,000 True Fans. That suggests annual revenue of about $1.0 million and a personal income, likely, in the range of $300K. I will not be the largest participant in Polymathica.com by a long shot.That might be considered rather average. So, rather than struggling to survive, you will have the opportunity to be an affluent and well respected member of a global community, in our case, Polymathica.
Efficient access to a customer rich Internet environment is just one of several advantages of an Enterprise Network. They also provide access to collaborators and investors. I discuss that in much greater detail in the article, 'An Information Enterprise Network'
Additionally, for those who want to undertake the role of Investor or Fund Manager in the Information Age, memberhsip in an appropriate Enterprise Network will provide you with a steady stream of investment opportunities in enterprises that you will consider worthy and properly focused.
I hope to see you at The Future 101. It is a very nominal cost, at about 15¢ per day. It won't solve these very large issues, but it is a very effective first step..
Regards,
Michael Ferguson
In most cases, it actually boils down to the simple problem of traffic acquisition. In other words, assuming that you have demonstrated that there is a market for your wares, it then becomes a matter of finding that market for less cost than the resulting revenue generated. I know many blogs, for example, who having generated awareness in 10,000 people have followings of 100. Considering that it is just 1/6,000 of the English spearkers on the Internet, that means with full awareness, they may have over 500,000 readers. With proper monetization, that would create a fine, full time income. However, it is also a dream. There is no way for a single blog to gain universal awareness for less than the expected advertising revenue.
To this end, Technium discussed the idea of 1,000 True Fans. It suggests that the future may be characterized by countless creators who have found 1,000 enthusiasts who will provide them with $100 per year each in revenue. As its author, Kevin Kelly, argues, $100 X 1,000 = $100,000 less some expenses is a living for most people. It certainly is far more attractive that attempting to live on a blogger's income.
While true and on the surface 1,000 doesn't sound that difficult, in practice, it is proving just short of impossible. There are exceptions, of course, and Technium discusses Amanda Hocking, a dramatic example. She actually is earning six figures per month. Yes, per month. However, she is notable precisely because she is one of just a handful of examples of a success. Also, she has not found 1,000 True Fans. She has found hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, of them. And, at $3 to $5 per e-book, they are more mildly interested rather than True Fans.
John Scalzi wrote a wonderful article entitled, "The Problem with 1,000 True Fans" that goes a long way in explaining why we have so few success stories. Key among these is a consideration of price elasticity. In other words, if my goal is to obtain $100,000 per year, I can, as Technium suggests, find 1,000 True Fans who support me with $100 per year. Or I could find 10,000 at $10. Or, on the other hand, 100 at $1,000. The Creative is faced with a dilemma. The market research required to determine where on the elasticity curve the optimum profit may be found is too expensive. Consequently, the Creative must guess and they usually guess wrong. Furthermore, for most Creatives, even if they guess correctly, it still won't be easy.
I emphasize again that this is important because Creatives will likely constitute the largest career category in the Information Age. Many of my readers who, presently, don't think they are likely to be one of them are going to turn out to be wrong. The imagination you are demonstrating by reading The Future 101 suggests that over time and over the Transformation, you will discover that it is your new career. It is for me, despite spending nearly my whole career in Finance. The Transformation will be forcing many career changes. So, stay open. Sometimes reality forces you in a direction that you should have gone anyway.
However, in order for this to be an option, it needs to be viable and, currently, save for the few notable exceptions, it is not. I have been personally going through this. Some of my readers have been as well. We all have discovered that there are two primary problems.
Suppose a Creative has a business model that requires finding 10,000@$10. Again, assume that the market is English speakers on the Internet, which is about 600 million people. That means that if the Creative searches randomly, one would find a True Fan in every 60,000 people contacted. If you need to talk to 60,000 people to get $10, there just is no way to do it cost effectively. You are doomed before you start.
The second problem is that, when it comes to True Fans, rarely is it love at first sight. Most often one becomes a True Fan through multiple exposures over time. This actually suggests that the middle pricing model, Technium's 1,000@$100, may be the most difficult price point to make work. It is not enough to warrant the effort of creating a True Fan and it is too much for the casually interested. It is probably far easier to woo a few, say 100@$1,000, if the work product is amenable or to find a large number of candidates, say 10,000@$10, who aren't in love yet, but are willing to part with a little money to continue the process.
The most effective approach may be a low front end commitment, followed by a larger commitment from those who do become True Fans. This is my approach with a $54.95 annual subscription, but for those who understand the Transformation and wish to pursue it aggressively, I will be providing several higher level opportunities.
The upshot of these two factors is that, in the absence of more effective aggregators, success will remain elusive. If however, traffic can be found in large amounts and at a low price, what is currently a dream can become a viable career option.
We are, I know I have been, attracted to the notion of word of mouth. In theory, for those familiar with the concept of Six Degrees of Separation, you can reach every one of your True Fans, simply by asking for some help from those sympathetic readers. In practice, when you are searching for a handful of people who will respond to you at the True Fan level, it doesn't work well.
Consider the total Internet population as comprised of three groups. The first group, very small, and likely widely dispersed, are your True Fans. They may be one out of a thousand among the general population and one out of a hundred where you are searching. Perhaps one in twenty within that search universe are sympathetic, but not True Fans. All other, essentially 95% of the search universe is of no benefit to you.
Your call for word of mouth, then, may be heeded by 5% of your contacts. However, it is usually heeded by 'sharing' on facebook or retweeting, etc. These methods rarely meet the requirement for virality. In other words, if 100 shares leads to less than 100 more shares, the word of mouth is decreasing and will fade out. If, however, 100 shares leads to more than 100 more shares, the word of mouth will grow. That is much more rare than one might think. In fact, most people discover that word of mouth provides marginal benefit and even this requires constant pump priming.
In an Enterprise network, let's assume in this case, for Internet magazines/blogs, the trick will be to aggregate several sites with very similar demographic appeal and then attack that niche aggressively. If you approach 100 potential readers, you may get one True Fan. If we approach 100 potential readers, we may get five True Fans between us. The process is five times more efficient.
However, few people are just blog readers. They often have many similar consumption patterns. Perhaps they have a high density of interest in custom designed and hand made jewelry. Maybe they enjoy educational vacations. So, we can also aggregate with a number of such products and services and because each brings people into the Enterprise Network we are again increasing our personal exposure while doing the same for others.
This, then, is the logic behind one type of Enterprise Network. My version of this is Polymathica.com. In our case, our market are people of refinement and erudition. One might imagine a Thomas Jefferson or a John Stuart Mill, although, obviously, we will not all be of that degree of erudition. Polymathica.com then becomes a market saturation site. In other words, our goal is to make sure that if our market is interested, we have it. If your blog, product or service primarily serves this market, then your market will be here and you can talk to them and you can acquire your 1,000 True Fans in a cost efficient way.
Recently, I received a link to The Age of the Platform. Germane to this discussion are the matters of Amazon, Facebook and Google. Together, these platforms provide Products, Social Media and Search Services to, virtually, the whole world. They are differentiated by service. Polymathica.com and other demographic Enterprise Networks are defined by a market niche and then it will provide all platforms to that market, customized to fit the attitudes, lifestyles, habit and preferences for just them.
This is a very powerful idea that may come to dominate up to 30% of the total Internet marketplace. Those consumers who identify readily with the popular culture will most likely remain with the traditional services. However, over time, Gaians, Goths, Wiccans, Polyamorists, Singularitarians, Polymathicans, New Age and a host of others will find that a dedicated portal to their content, products, services, social media, etc. will be much more efficient and self-affirming.
As a Creative, with a properly constructed Platform for your market niche, you will likely discover that, rather than struggling to get your 1,000 True Fans, you will sail right past that, right into Information Age income levels. Actually, the notion of content appealing to only one in 60,000 is rather peculiar. Almost always, even for highly defined niches, the appeal will likely be at least one in a thousand or it will be nothing.
For example, I feel confident from the quality of the reception for The Future 101, that I will ultimately have, perhaps, 20,000 True Fans. That suggests annual revenue of about $1.0 million and a personal income, likely, in the range of $300K. I will not be the largest participant in Polymathica.com by a long shot.That might be considered rather average. So, rather than struggling to survive, you will have the opportunity to be an affluent and well respected member of a global community, in our case, Polymathica.
Efficient access to a customer rich Internet environment is just one of several advantages of an Enterprise Network. They also provide access to collaborators and investors. I discuss that in much greater detail in the article, 'An Information Enterprise Network'
Additionally, for those who want to undertake the role of Investor or Fund Manager in the Information Age, memberhsip in an appropriate Enterprise Network will provide you with a steady stream of investment opportunities in enterprises that you will consider worthy and properly focused.
Your To-Do List
Clearly, for many, working toward membership in an Enterprise Network is the single most effective way that they have to deal with the approaching 'train wreck' while simultaneously capitalizing upon the opportunities that the Transformation will provide. The nice thing about this is that you can feather out of your Industrial Age situation with, at the start, relatively minor commitments of financial and time expenditures. It is how I am designing it. So, you have a three step process:- Subscribe to The Future 101. It will provide you with your initial, important education on The Transformation and will begin the process of affiliating with the people you will need to know.
- Develop a Transformation Action Plan. In other words, you need to begin to formulate the proper answers for you.
- Join an Enterprise Network. I am creating a venue where you will be able to do this. It will be called, simply 'InfoAge Enterprise Networks'.
I hope to see you at The Future 101. It is a very nominal cost, at about 15¢ per day. It won't solve these very large issues, but it is a very effective first step..
Regards,
Michael Ferguson
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